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Continued oversupply forecast for zircon market
Between 2002 and 2005, zircon demand exceeded supply. The shortage of zircon in the market would have continued into 2006 had it not been for the emergence of Indonesia as a major new supplier of zircon, resulting in the market entering a period of oversupply in 2006. However, despite increased production from Indonesia, zircon prices reached almost US$750/t in 2006, almost double those seen in 2002. World consumption of zircon was about 1.25Mt in 2006. With a share of 47%, Asia (including China and Japan) now accounts for just under half of total consumption, mainly reflecting the growth in production of ceramics, but also in refractories and chemicals production, in China. Overall growth in demand is likely to continue at around 3.8%py to reach just over 1.5Mt by 2011. Several new zircon-producing mineral sands projects have come on line during the first half of 2007 and several more are anticipated for 2008 and 2009, encouraged by the recent shortage of, and high prices for, zircon. Despite overall growth in production of only around 4.0%py to 2011, the impact of these new zircon-producing projects is that the oversupply observed during 2006 will continue and could reach more than 400kt in 2009. Prices are therefore forecast to decline to around US$450/t by 2011.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskilll. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
Report highlights
The use of zircon in the manufacture of synthetic zirconia and zirconium chemicals has shown the fastest growth of all segments, 7%py, and now amounts to around 150ktpy. The main stimulus in this market has been the increased demand for zirconium products in coatings and catalysts and the production of synthetic zirconia to replace diminished supplies of baddeleyite, the naturally occurring form of zirconia that is now extracted from only one mine in Russia.
The last three decades have seen a major shift in the global distribution of zircon production. In the 1970s Australia accounted for at least 50% of total output, while South Africa was then only a very minor producer. The development of the Richards Bay beach sands operation in the late 1970s made South Africa the second-largest producer of zircon worldwide. That position was reinforced with the start-up of the Namakwa Sands mine in 1995, and by the commencement of operations by Ticor in 2001. Today, Australia and South Africa account for 66% of total supply, with the USA and Indonesia providing much of the rest.
Concentration of zircon production continues at a corporate level. In 2006 the ten largest producers had a combined output of just over 1.1Mt, about 80% of the world total. Production is dominated by four companies: Iluka Resources, with operations in Australia and the USA
Although some of the new projects around the world are aimed principally at compensating for falling output from existing operations, other represent entirely new supply. Matilda Minerals' Tiwi Islands project has commenced production in Australia, as has Kenmare's Moma project in Mozambique. Carnegie's project in The Gambia has begun shipping zircon/rutile concentrate to China for separation and Sierra Rutile's Gbangbama project is stockpiling zircon concentrates ready for processing. Australian Zircon's Mindarie project is also fast approaching commercial production. Although such projects are unlikely to reach their full capacity during 2007, in total they represent around 250kt of new zircon supply. This additional supply, combined with production from Indonesia and other projects in various stages of development, is all contributing to a forecast sustained period of oversupply in the zircon market.
The Economics of Zirconium, 12th edition published 24/08/2007
287 pages, 175 tables and 26 figures.
ISBN 978 086214 538 5
Complete report price:
GBP 2400
EUR 4200
USD 4800
plus postage/packing.