Roskill - Expanding The World's Knowledge of Metals and Minerals Markets
Table of Contents
- 1. Summary
- 2. Properties
- 3. Mining and processing of tin
- 4. Tin production data
- 5. Notes on tin producing and consuming countries
- 6. Consumption of tin
- 7. Uses of tin
- 8. International trade in tin
- 9. Prices of tin
This is an abridged table of contents. Click here for the full table of contents.
Tin
Tin market expected to be in deficit until at least 2006
In 2004, tin performed the best of the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange with prices increasing by almost 150% between August 2002 and May 2004. Tinas market strength is underpinned by increasing demand, stagnant supply and low inventories. The market is expected to be in deficit until at least 2006, with a shortfall of around 15kt in 2004. Projects in Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Argentina, Russia and the UK could add 25kt to mine supply over the next five years, with the first new production coming on-stream by the end of 2004. Tin consumption exceeded 300kt for the first time in 2003, and is expected to be around 330kt in 2004. Demand is expected to increase in all end-use sectors over the next five years, but the fastest growth rates will be in solder and chemicals, with an overall rate of 3.5%py and resulting in a market of 365Ktpy in 2008. Chemical applications now provide a larger market than tinplate, which was once the major end use before declining in the 1970s and 1980s, as a result of its decreasing use in beverage canning. The fundamentals of the tin market point to continued strength well into 2006, with the price remaining between $8,000 and $9,500/t. There is, however, an argument for considerably higher prices, should world economies continue to grow at or about the rates seen in 2004, and tin supply struggles to keep pace.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
- Detailed survey of production in 45 countries
- Up-to-date profiles of over 35 producing and processing companies and their activities, including Malaysia Smelting Corp, Minsur, PT Timah, PT Koba Tin, Yunnan Tin and Thaisarco
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
China, Indonesia and Peru are by far the largest tin mining and refining countries, together accounting for 80% of tin mine production and 72% of refined tin production in 2003. PT Timah and PT Koba Tin are the two major companies in Indonesia, while all production in Peru is from the integrated Minsur operation. Tin mining in China comprises thousands of small non-mechanised mines and a few more modern larger operations, including Yunnan Tin.
The long period of low tin prices resulted in pro-longed under-investment and a decline in the tin mining industries of Malaysia and Thailand, although they both still have large tin refining capacity, and Malaysia has access to some of the largest known resources of tin. Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) in Malaysia and Thaisarco in Thailand operate large tin smelters and refineries that depend principally on imported concentrates. Unofficial exports from Indonesia used to keep them supplied but these have dried up since 2002. MSC has started to acquire interests in Australian and Indonesian tin mining companies.
Unlike other base metals, it is difficult to predict how the tin supply is going to respond to the higher prices because so much production is dependent on small, aunconventionala or artisanal miners, mainly in Indonesia and China. Chinese production is growing, but the increased output is being absorbed by domestic demand.
The use of tin in solder has increased rapidly in recent years, particularly in China, with the boom in consumer electrical appliances and electronics. Demand for tin has been greatly enhanced by the move to lead-free solders, backed up by legislation in Europe, Japan and China. Solders that typically contain about 63% tin are being replaced chiefly with solders containing over 95% tin, creating a 35% increase in tin demand (allowing for weight differences) for the same task. The conversion is expected to be almost total in Japan and Europe by the end of 2006.
Buy This Report Now
The Economics of Tin, 8th edition published 05/11/2004
251 pages, 108 tables and 60 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 500 7
Complete report price:
GBP 1950
EUR 3412
USD 3900
plus postage/packing.