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New sources of supply could eliminate price fluctuations
Over the past few decades, the tantalum market has been characterised by long periods of stability, punctuated by sharp price rises created by strong global demand and fears, usually unfounded of impending raw material shortages. Stability was reinforced when Cabot and Stark, the world's largest tantalum processors, entered into long-term, fixed price supply contracts with Australia's Sons of Gwalia, the leading mine producer. Those arrangements helped keep prices in the open market fairly constant, even when global demand for tantalum entered into a period of strong growth during the second half of the 1990s, in response to rapid expansion of the demand for consumer electronics, and mobile telephones in particular. Booming sales of mobile telephones between 1998 and 2000 resulted in supplies of electronics components, including tantalum capacitors, becoming tight and prices increased. Demand for tantalum raw materials also increased, rising to levels that could not be met by the traditional suppliers. Spot tantalum prices rose to US$40-50/lb by mid-2000 and by December had reached US$240/lb. In early 2001, a number of capacitor manufacturers, made nervous by spiralling tantalum prices and the threat of raw material shortages entered into long-term, fixed-price contracts with processors. However, instead of continuing to grow, the mobile telephone market and aerospace industry turned downward in 2001. Tantalum prices started to fall sharply. By the end of the year prices were back to pre-boom levels, and in early 2005, spot prices remain at below US$40/lb.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
Report highlights
In 2005, the principal end-use markets for tantalum a' mobile phones and other electronic equipment, aerospace and automobile manufacturing a' have returned to long-term growth trend. That will not, however, fully translate into additional demand for tantalum. In the capacitor segment, smaller case sizes are reducing unit consumption of component materials, and tantalum is also losing market share to other materials, such as ceramics, aluminium and niobium in applications where it previously had little competition.
In 2003, an estimated 65% of the supply into the tantalum market was in the form of primary tantalum minerals. The balance was made up of secondary materials (22%) and tantalum contained in tin slags and tailings (13%). The principal sources of tantalum bearing tin wastes are stockpiles located in Malaysia and Thailand, which are a diminishing resource. In future, the tantalum market will be supplied entirely by primary production, mainly of hard-rock tantalites, and a growing amount of recycled material.
Worldwide, there are numerous deposits of tantalum that could be brought into production given the right market conditions. Some large projects are in advanced stages of development and could be operational in the fairly near future. Examples are Abu Dabbab in Egypt, Ghurayyah in Saudi Arabia, and the Big Whopper and Fir/Verity projects in Canada.
The commercialisation of new deposits could be the key to securing the future of much of the tantalum industry. Consumers have become cautious of tantalum because of uncertainty over raw materials availability and pricing. The supply base is currently rather narrow, with only a few large producers. It would only take a disruption in output from one major mine to throw the market into disarray once more and lead to redoubled efforts among capacitor manufacturers to eliminate tantalum from their products.
The Economics of Tantalum published 29/04/2005
193 pages, 98 tables and 24 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 506 6
Complete report price:
GBP 2100
EUR 3675
USD 4200
plus postage/packing.