Steel Alloy / Vanadium: Market Outlook to 2025 - Premium Edition
- 1. Executive summary
- 2. Macro, demographic and mega-trends
- 3. World demand for vanadium
- 4. End uses of vanadium
- 5. In-Depth Focus: Consumption in China
- 6. Outlook for end-use industries
- 7. Outlook for demand for vanadium
- 8. Properties and occurrence of vanadium
- 9. Mining and processing of vanadium
- 10. Production costs
- 11. World supply of vanadium
- 12. Country production
- 13. International trade in vanadium
- 14. Outlook for supply of vanadium
- 15. Supply/demand balance
- 16. Vanadium prices
- 17. Appendix: Chinese projects and operations
- 18. Appendix: Other projects and operations
Vanadium: Market Outlook to 2025 - Premium Edition
Roskill's NEW 14th report has now been published
Roskill’s latest vanadium report – now available in three versions – provides an in-depth look at an industry that little information is otherwise available on, and is dramatically more comprehensive than its previous editions. The Market Outlook to 2025 provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand, trade, and prices, complete with detailed historical and forecast data, geared specifically to the needs of industry participants, traders and investors.
In terms of supply, Roskill has, for the first time, achieved a breakdown of vanadium production, not just in terms of overall production – but by production stage. Crucially, in light of the recent announcements in South Africa by Evraz Highveld, the report provides a breakdown of the supply and availability of feedstock, pentoxide and ferrovanadium, broken down by country, and by producer.
With feedstock for vanadium coming from three different sources (primary production, co-production and secondary production), the market for vanadium is dynamic and diversified, but the effects of any shocks to the system, such as the sudden suspension of a major mine, are not clear-cut. This report shows the surplus capacity available in a number of countries around the world (including Russia and China) where Roskill expects supply to increase in response to any shortfalls in production in South Africa.
Roskill’s World Market for Vanadium is available with a 10-year outlook for world supply. The basis of these forecasts is a detailed industry analysis, covering supply of vanadium for each country - alongside an overview of the specific features of the vanadium industry in each location – as well as an extensive appendix covering over 100 companies and more than 170 vanadium operations and projects including available details on capacity, production, resources and reserves, and expansion plans.
On the demand side, Roskill’s updated study provides a full breakdown of demand for vanadium by its various applications. Steel applications account for approximately 91% of total consumption. High-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steels are by far the largest market for vanadium and accounted for around 46% of vanadium consumption in steel in 2014. Consumption of vanadium in this application has benefited from increasingly stringent building requirements, particularly in China, which has resulted in the use of larger quantities of vanadium-bearing rebar.
Roskill’s analysis also provides an extensive overview of the use of vanadium in batteries, which has been slated as a potential growth market for vanadium. Vanadium redox batteries (VRBs) have been proposed as a potential solution for grid energy storage associated with renewable energy. To date, around 95% of storage capacity is based on pumped-storage hydroelectricity. Given the size of the market, even a small increase in the use of VRBs in this market would amount to a significant additional demand for vanadium. As Roskill’s report points out, however, a number of technological challenges have to be overcome for the solution to become economic, which is factored into Roskill’s outlook for demand for vanadium from this sector.
With prices of vanadium having seen a number of up- and downswings in recent months in response to developments in the market, Roskill’s outlook contains a detailed analysis of vanadium prices, including analyses of price correlations, technical analysis, and a review of the seasonal variations in prices showing, for instance, that changes in prices as large as 20% may be attributed to seasonal factors (on both the supply and demand sides).
Roskill’s 10-year outlook covers the viability of new projects coming on-stream, the supply of material from existing and secondary sources, different scenarios for demand, and the relatively probability of optimistic and pessimistic price forecasts. Roskill’s long-term outlook for vanadium prices suggests a recovery in prices is likely, peaking around 2019/2020, as steady growth in demand will, towards that time, increase the market’s dependence on new supply coming on-stream. Roskill’s outlook suggests new supply may account for only 4-6kt of vanadium by 2020, but increase to 15-32kt of vanadium by 2025.
In the near term, Roskill warns that although the announcements by Evraz Highveld will likely lead to an increase in prices, upside potential may be limited by the fact that at such higher prices, additional capacity (particularly in China) may be brought back on-stream, and exposure to iron ore prices may remain the more important factor influencing prices of vanadium.
Roskill’s Market Outlook is available in three different editions. Its Executive Briefing provides a succinct overview of the market and its headline data. Its Standard edition provides an outlook to 2020 and covers all existing operations and advanced projects. Its Premium edition includes more advanced analysis of prices, profiles on early development projects, greater focus on demand in China, and a longer-term outlook to 2025.
Roskill now also offers a quarterly publication on vanadium, with its upcoming issue exploring the likely impact of the suspension of production at the Mapochs mine over the near and medium term, and the effects on downstream processors and industries.