Steel Alloys / Molybdenum: Market outlook to 2014, 10th edition 2010

Between August 2008 and March 2009, molybdenum prices, responding to the global economic downturn, fell from US$34/lbMo to US$8/lbMo. This followed a four-year period when supply limitations and growing demand, principally from low alloy and stainless steels, sustained an average price of US$30/lbMo. Stockpiling of imported roasted concentrates by Chinese traders and consumers resulted in prices rallying for a while in mid 2009. Through 2010 and 2011, market volatility is likely to continue but thereafter consumer demand for molybdenum in steel for process and power plant, as well as in oil and gas projects, will keep the market tight. The availability of project finance will remain a problem for potential new producers outside China. The consequent under-investment in molybdenum projects in 2009 and 2010 will have consequences for supply as far ahead as 2015.

What the report gives you:

• Independent, in-depth research and analysis
• Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
• Detailed survey of production and processing in 46 countries
• Up-to-date profiles of the activities of over 50 producing and processing companies
• Forecasts for end-use consumption, world demand and supply balance and prices

Report Highlights

• Since 2002 molybdenum mine production has moved strongly upwards with an annual average growth rate of 8.8%, in response to greater demand from the iron and steel industry.  Output in 2007 increased by about 11% to 211kt, mainly because of rising Chinese production.  In 2008 global production increased by 3.6% to 219kt, but probably fell by about 12% in 2009.
• The global market for primary or new molybdenum is estimated to have grown from about 100kt in 1990 to about 213kt in both 2007 and 2008, an average year-on-year growth rate of 4.6%.  This compares with a world real GDP growth rate of 3.4%py as calculated by the IMF.  Between the turn of the century and 2008 the molybdenum market grew by an average of 5.8%py, but may have fallen by between 7% and 10% in 2009.
• Between August 2008 and March 2009 the price of oxide fell from US$34.50/lbMo to a low of US$8/lbMo, and that of ferromolybdenum fell from US$81.50/kgMo to US$20.50/kgMo, levels not seen since early 2002.
• Cutbacks by major producers, and demand in China remaining strong, resulted in tightening of supplies and a weak rally of molybdenum prices, which had doubled by July 2009 to peak at US$18/lbMo for oxide and US$40/kgMo for ferromolybdenum.  Other factors in the partial recovery of the market were exceptionally large imports by Chinese traders and consumers and a sharp decline in Chinese exports, and the start of a recovery in global steel output.  In August and September 2009 physical demand was reported to have slumped, and prices fell back to less than US$11/lbMo for oxide and US$25/kg/Mo for ferromolybdenum in October.