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Pressure on producers as supply demand balance tightens
Spot prices for rhenium doubled in 2006 and are now at a historic peak - the result of limited supplies and strong growth in demand from the aerospace sector. Over the last decade, the rise in output has not matched the strong growth in demand from 35,000kg to an estimated 65,000kg, which has come from the development of new superalloys containing rhenium for use in aircraft engines and ground-based gas turbines.
The supply-demand balance is likely to tighten further, at least in the short term. World demand in 2006 was put at 65,000kg, of which 51,000kg (79%) was met by primary production. The balance came largely from recycled material and stocks from Kazakhstan. Despite expected increases in primary capacity, they are not enough to meet forecast demand. However, secondary production has risen after the 2007 re-opening of WC Heraeus plant in Germany, and the supply-demand gap will also be narrowed by the development of technology to recover rhenium from superalloy scrap. Spot prices are expected to continue rising, possibly to US$10,000/kg by 2009, before stabilising at or near this level. In the short term, remaining stocks in Kazakhstan could play a key role in prices.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
Report highlights
In 2007, Molymet of Chile opened a new molybdenum roaster which could raise rhenium capacity to an estimated 40,000kgpy. Molymet is by far the largest rhenium producer, accounting for about two-thirds of primary rhenium output in 2006. At least 75% of Molymet's output is in the form of metallic rhenium that is exported almost entirely to the USA.
The second-largest rhenium supplier is Zhezkazganredmet (Red Met) in Kazakhstan. Output, which is in the form of APR, has increased significantly since the late 1990s from 1,500kgpy to around 8,000kgpy. In 2004/5, shipments from Red Met were disrupted because of a dispute with Kazakhmys, which supplies raw materials.
With the right equipment, primary rhenium can be recovered from flue dusts and gases produced in molybdenum roasters. However, not all molybdenum roasters have rhenium recovery circuits, so an estimated 15,000kgpy of virgin rhenium is lost to the market. This represents an important potential sources of rhenium that could be exploited in the event of a serious disruption to supply elsewhere.
Nickel-based superalloys are now estimated to account for 77% of rhenium demand, compared with 15% from petroleum refining catalysts. Demand for rhenium is now heavily influenced by changes in the aircraft industry, and the current high demand is closely linked to growth in the civil aviation market and military projects like the US/UK Joint Strike Fighter.
Although a significant amount of rhenium is recovered from spent catalysts used in petroleum refining, it tends to remain within a closed loop of catalyst manufacturers, refiners and recyclers. Only one company is reported to recover rhenium from superalloy scrap, but the large amount of this material available may eventually lead to the development of a metallic rhenium recycling industry.
The Economics of Rhenium published 30/10/2007
116 pages, 77 tables and 22 figures.
ISBN 978 0 86214 541 5
Complete report price:
GBP 2400
EUR 4200
USD 4800
plus postage/packing.