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Long-term growth potential for niobium consumption in steel
There are only three significant suppliers of pyrochlore-derived niobium to the international market, Brazil's CBMM and CatalUKPo, and Niobec of Canada. Although large deposits of pyrochlore exist elsewhere in the world, the exploration of most seems unlikely under present market conditions. The development of such deposits would, in almost all cases, require that they be export-oriented ferroniobium businesses. The dominant market position held by existing producers, and the availability of substantial spare capacity, means that there is little commercial incentive to bring new sources of ferroniobium into production. The main exception is the Niocan project in Canada, which could come into production in the fairly near future and possibly rival Niobec in terms of output. The concentration of the bulk of niobium supply in the hands of a small number of producers could imply that there is a significant risk of a major disruption of the world market, should output from a leading producer be severely reduced or even halted. However, the market could adapt to such a situation, as ferroniobium is used in a fairly small proportion of all steels produced, and in many cases other ferroalloys can be used in place of ferroniobium for the same function. It is evident that the steel industry offers substantial long-term potential for increased niobium consumption as a result of both the underlying growth in steel production and the probability that, in future, a higher proportion of total output will be of steels containing niobium.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
Report highlights
CBMM is the world's largest source of ferroniobium by a considerable margin. Its production capacity of 45,000tpy FeNb, already enough to meet global demand, is being increased to 70,000tpy, which will ensure long-term security of supply to the market.
The principal non-steel use of niobium is in the manufacture of superalloys, used in applications that demand resistance to high temperatures and corrosion, such as turbines for aircraft and land-based power generation. Although the commercial aircraft market is now in a recovery phase, following a downturn in the early part of this century, and will continue to expand over the long-term, the land-based power generation market has not returned to its previous growth trend.
An emerging market for niobium, and one that could come to rival superalloys as an application, is in capacitors used in mobile telephones and most other types of electronic equipment. In recent years, concerns over the supply of tantalum has intensified research into the development of niobium capacitors that replace tantalum types in some applications. Several capacitor manufacturers have launched niobium capacitors since the start of this decade and they are likely to take market share from tantalum types in years to come.
The ferroniobium market has shown a remarkable degree of stability over the last two decades. The dominant position held by a very small number of producers has done much to ensure that supply and demand are largely kept in balance, and that prices do not demonstrate the often sharp fluctuations seen in many commodity markets.
The Economics of Niobium published 11/08/2005
255 pages, 123 tables and 22 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 508 2
Complete report price:
GBP 2100
EUR 3675
USD 4200
plus postage/packing.