Growing Chinese stainless steel industry driving nickel demand

Consumption of nickel is dominated by the stainless steel sector, which accounts for around 70% of demand for primary nickel. Since 2001, world output of stainless steel has increased at an average rate of almost 10%py, driven by China where growth has averaged over 50%py over the same period. At these growth rates China will overtake Japan as the largest primary nickel consuming country, possibly as early as 2006. The outlook for nickel demand to 2010 is one of higher than average growth than that for the other base metals. If the 5%py growth forecast by International Stainless Steel Forum in 2005 proves to be correct, then demand for nickel in stainless steel is likely to grow at between 3% and 5%py over the same period. There are a number of potential nickel mining and refining projects in various stages of development, as well as some expansions at existing facilities, that will ensure continued growth in supply of primary nickel to 2010. In the short term, with a small surplus forecast for the nickel market in 2006, Roskill expects the average nickel price to fall to around US$12,000t in 2006 from almost US$15,000 in 2005. The medium to longer-term outlook for nickel prices is good as nickel supply may struggle to match growth in demand, particularly after 2008.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

• Independent, in-depth research and analysis
• Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
• Detailed survey of production in 46 countries
• Up-to-date profiles of over 80 nickel exploration, mining and refining companies and their activities, including Norilsk Nickel Mining, BHP Billiton, Western Mining Corporation, Inco and Falconbridge
• Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand