Industrial Minerals / Lithium: Market Outlook to 2017, 12th edition

One new producer entered the market, albeit briefly, in 2012 and a further two projects are financed, under construction, and due to be commissioned in 2013and 2014.  In total, these three projects could add upwards of 50,000tpy LCE to global capacity by 2015. Meanwhile, expansion at existing producers continues, with Talison doubling mineral capacity in 2012 and new brine capacity from FMC and Rockwood coming on-stream in 2013/14.  Companies in china are also expanding, with two large mineral conversion capacity additions expected in 2013.  A pipeline of exploration and development projects follow these, although several companies have switched their focus to other commodities as the boom in lithium exploration subsides.  Mineral and brine output has been more equally matched since 2011 and this trend is expected to remain given the type of projects supporting growth in supply.

Consumption of lithium continues to follow a strong growth pattern, despite the global economic downturn, the European sovereign debt crisis and a weakening in Chinese domestic output since 2008.  Rechargeable lithium batteries continue to support this above average growth, due both to rising output of portable consumer electronics as well as increased capacity (and therefore lithium requirements) per battery.  Lithium’s unique properties are also underpinning growth in other markets that have otherwise been dampened by slowing global markets, including grease, glass-ceramics, primary batteries and metallurgical powders.  Consumption of lithium has already surpassed 2008 levels and is expected to exceed 150,000t LCE in 2012.  Demand is set to continue to grow at around 8%py in the base-case scenario, with the EV market becoming increasingly important for growth towards the latter part of the forecast period.

A multitude of lithium products satisfy the variety of end-uses in which lithium is consumed, complicating the global supply/demand balance and pricing. Prices for the main lithium products consumed by the market, such as carbonate and hydroxide, are impacted by wider global market factors and supply/demand, other products in tandem with these feed materials, and some completely independent to them, such as metal and organolithium.  Prices for lithium carbonate have rebounded since 2010, but remain below 2007 highs. The prospect of new supply coming into the market is acting as a buffer to price rises despite rising demand, as the fight for market share hots up.  This NEW 2013report on lithium builds on Roskill’s experience in evaluating end-use, supply and price trends, providing both market insight and market projections through to 2017.