Roskill - Expanding The World's Knowledge of Metals and Minerals Markets
Table of Contents
- 1. Summary
- 2. Introduction
- 3. Gallium production
- 4. Notes on producing countries
- 5. Gallium demand
- 6. Gallium in electronic devices
- 7. Other applications for gallium compounds
- 8. Gallium prices and price trends
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Gallium
Demand recovers after volatile period
The first few years of the new millennium saw a volatile gallium market. After a period of steady growth in the latter half of the 1990s, demand for gallium soared in 1999 and 2000. This was driven by booming demand for gallium arsenide-based semiconductor devices for mobile telephones as well as strong growth in sales of light-emitting diodes for displays and for fibre optic data links. Worldwide gallium demand was forecast to grow at 6.5%py to reach 350t by 2008. However, 2001 saw a downturn in the electronics industry and gallium demand fell by one-third to 141t, causing major producers to withdraw from the industry and China to suspend production until demand recovers. Demand is expected to have recovered slightly in 2002 to 162t, but a return to the levels of 1999 and 2000 is unlikely before 2004/05.
With hindsight, it is clear that there was a spike in demand, though this was not as great as was reported. A real or perceived shortfall in supplies, combined with
expected growth, led to high levels of purchasing and inventory build up. It is probable that the underlying trend in worldwide gallium consumption has actually been a continuation of the steady 10%py growth seen through the 1980s and 1990s. Looking ahead, the rapid uptake of new technologies such as G3 mobile phone sets and white LEDs could return the gallium market to double-digit growth, which could result in some short-term supply shortages. However, Roskill forecasts that annual growth will average a more sustainable 8-10%py to reach 280t by 2008.
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
- Detailed survey of production in 18 countries
- Up-to-date profiles of over 42 producing and processing companies and their activities, including Dowa Mining, GEO Gallium, Sumitomo Chemical, Rasa Industries, JSC Aluminium, Recapture Metals and Shanghai Sumika
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
Major producer GEO Gallium, which has plants in France and Germany, plans to install a 100tpy gallium facility at Pinjarra, Australia, although completion of the project has been deferred pending an improvement in the gallium market.
China is an increasingly significant supplier of primary gallium. There have been a number of capacity increases in the past few years, and current nameplate capacity is estimated at 80tpy. Actual output is much lower than this. In 2001, Chinese production totalled 25t and in August 2002 all gallium production effectively ceased owing to low prices and demand.
Sales of LEDs, a major end-use for gallium, have seen growth rates as high as 58%py over the last 5 years, and the market is forecast to exceed $3,000M by 2006. The list of applications is increasing, due to improved brightness and power for both white and coloured LEDs.
Increases in gallium production capacity should prevent repetitions of the 2000/01 price spike, but short-term tightness, whether real or assumed, could again spark panic-buying and launch gallium prices on another rapid rise, and probably an equally rapid fall.
Buy This Report Now
The Economics of Gallium published 01/12/2002
90 pages, 31 tables and 4 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 870 7
Complete report price:
GBP 1600
EUR 2800
USD 3200
plus postage/packing.