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Medium term recovery forecast for world demand
World demand for beryllium is expected to decline sharply in 2001 as demand contracts in the telecommunications equipment market, which is probably the largest end-use market for beryllium. However, in the medium term this decline should be offset by rising demand for beryllium-copper strip in automotive electronics and computers. Consumption of beryllium-copper products should continue to rise for undersea communications equipment, as will demand for pipe products in the oil and gas industry. The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s led to major changes in the patterns of both supply and demand, starting with a sharp decline in demand for beryllium metal in defence applications (the main market at that time) and the subsequent problems for beryllium producers. Today Brush Wellman of the USA is the largest beryllium producer, mining from the Spur Mountain area of Utah and accounting for around 93% of world output in 2000. The other main source of beryllium in the USA is the National Defence Stockpile (NDS), but the US Government has been selling stocks following the end of the Cold War. UMP in Kazakhstan restarted production of refined beryllium metal in 2000, and the other main source of beryllium is China, where state-owned companies are thought to mine around 500tpy of beryl ores containing around 20t of beryllium.
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In 1980 the National Defence Stockpile held 16,330t of beryl, 7,167t of beryllium-copper master alloys (BCMA) and 363t of beryllium metal. By September 2000, the NDS held 8,780t of beryllium ore, 2036t of BCMA and 322t of beryllium metal. All NDS beryllium products are now to be sold, with the exception of 45t of beryllium metal.
The re-emergence of UMP as a source of beryllium should not impact on prices. UMP output of beryllium-copper alloys is exclusively supplied to Brush Wellman, although this situation may change when the long-term supply contracts between the two companies expire, and UMP is better able to compete with Brush Wellman on the world market.
Beryllium-aluminium alloys are becoming increasingly important in terms of beryllium consumption because of the amount of beryllium they contain - up to 65% compared with the 0.5% and 2% typically present in beryllium-copper. Both Starmet and Brush Wellman have developed beryllium- aluminium alloys that have a wide range of applications ranging from aerospace to computers.
Consumption of beryllium metals is unlikely to rise appreciably; alternative materials such as newly-developed beryllium alloys, aluminium and titanium are less expensive. In the longer term, beryllium oxide consumption should continue to grow steadily, especially in computers where increasing operating speeds generate progressively larger amounts of heat.
The expected fall in beryllium consumption in non-defence applications could be partly offset by increased use in defence applications after the events of September 11th 2001. In addition, businesses could also decide to make greater use of telecommunications technology, such as video conferencing, to avoid air travel.
The Economics of Beryllium, 6th edition published 01/11/2001
183 pages, 102 tables and 31 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 860 X
Complete report price:
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EUR 1750
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