Roskill - Expanding The World's Knowledge of Metals and Minerals Markets
Table of Contents
- 1. Summary
- 2. History, occurrence, properties and resources of aluminium
- 3. Aluminium production processes, costs and electricity usage
- 4. World production data for unwrought aluminium
- 5. Aluminium production and processing by country
- 6. World consumption data for aluminium
- 7. Uses of aluminium
- 8. International trade in aluminium and aluminium alloy
- 9. Prices of aluminium and aluminium alloy
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Aluminium
10Mtpy new primary capacity planned as producers increased producer efficiency keeps prices low
Reductions in costs, brought about by economies of scale and more efficient use of energy, are enabling aluminium producers to remain viable at lower price levels. At the same time, high-energy costs have forced older and smaller smelters, largely in the USA, to cut back or close. The increasing efficiency of the aluminium production industry is borne out by the fact that in 2003 prices are their lowest ever level in constant dollar terms, yet some 10Mtpy of new primary capacity is planned over the next 5 to 7 years.
Between 2000 and 2002 supply of primary aluminium grew at a 3.3% year on year average, compared with 2.2% for consumption. Much of the increase in output was in China, where year on year production increased by an average of 14.2% between 1993 and 2002. It is now the world's largest producer with 16% of global output. The expansion of the Chinese industry was encouraged by the government to meet rising demand, which resulted in significant deficits in 1999 and 2000. However, despite rising production, dependence on important alumina continues to grow and the deficit is expected to reach 5Mt by 2005. The Chinese alumina industry is handicapped by a lack of suitable bauxite resources, resulting in high energy consumption and poor quality alumina. Worldwide, operational efficiency in the aluminium industry is being improved by increasing the amperage of potlines while simultaneously reducing the operating voltage of each cell. Improved cathode and anode construction, and conversion from older Sderberg anode technology to prebaked anodes, are also reducing costs and emissions.
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
- Detailed survey of production in 62 countries
- Up-to-date profiles over 85 major producing companies and their activities, including Alcoa, RusAl, Alcan, Pchiney and Hydro Aluminium
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
High power tariffs make high production costs another problem for the Chinese aluminium industry. Although they have declined, costs in 2002 were the equivalent of $34/MWh, considerably higher than in other countries where costs range from $10 to $30/MWh. Reliability of power has improved and reported tariffs tend to be exaggerated to show higher profits for subordinate power plants, which enjoy tax concessions.
Consolidation of the Russian aluminium industry in 2001 produced two major groups, RusAl and Sual, operating the world's largest capacity smelters. In 2002, Norsk Hydro acquired the German company VAW, and Hydro Aluminium became the fifth largest producer of primary aluminium in the world.
In 2002, thirty-four primary aluminium-smelting projects with a total capacity of about 7.6Mtpy were under consideration outside China in 2003. Twelve are greenfield projects and the remainder are expansions to existing smelters. New Chinese projects add a further 3.8Mtpy.
World demand for aluminium is expected to grow by an average of 2.9%py giving a total market of 42.2Mt by 2008. The transport sector is expected to perform best, with a growth rate of 5.2%py. With the growth of consumerism in the highly populated countries of Asia, consumer durables are expected to show a growth rate of 3.5%py.
The unit consumption of aluminium per passenger vehicle is expected to double over the next ten years to about 200kg. The ease with which aluminium can be recycled is a major factor in its use in motor vehicles, as legislation requiring vehicles to be almost totally recycled has been introduced in Europe. High-speed vehicle ferries are providing one of the largest non-motor vehicle markets in the transport sector.
Buy This Report Now
The Economics of Aluminium published 11/07/2003
287 pages, 120 tables and 60 figures.
ISBN 0 86214 877 4
Complete report price:
GBP 1800
EUR 3150
USD 3600
plus postage/packing.