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The Economics of Activated Carbon, 8th edition 2008
In 2007/08, tightening availability and rising production costs have led to sharp price rises for activated carbon, a market characterised by surplus capacity and stable pricing over the previous decade. Prices of coal-based grades rose by up to 80% between the beginning of 2007 and mid-2008, with the tight market balance also exerting pressure on prices of other grades of activated carbon.
Through the early 2000s, price increases were restrained by the large surplus capacity worldwide, following capacity expansions in Asia, especially China. In 2008 production in China, which accounts for some 40% of both world activated carbon capacity and exports, has fallen. The reduced supply, the imposition of anti-dumping duties on US imports of steam-activated carbon from China since spring 2007, elimination of VAT (value added tax) rebates for Chinese exporters, currency fluctuations, and rising energy and freight rates, have all exerted upward pressure on activated carbon prices.
World activated carbon consumption is estimated at 650,000t in 2007, slightly over estimated production of 635,000t. Growth in consumption in current markets is forecast to be 5%py through 2015. Growth will be led by water treatment applications both in the USA, to control disinfection by-products in drinking water, and in the industrialising countries, to upgrade the quality of drinking and wastewater. In China, 10,000 wastewater treatment plants are scheduled for construction by 2010, raising the proportion of wastewater treated from 29% to 50%.
The next five years could see the emergence of the largest-ever market for activated carbon ? the use of powdered activated carbon to control mercury emissions from coal-fired power plant flue gas in North America. Driven by state environmental legislation in the USA and limitations on new power plant construction, this market is estimated to increase from 5,000t powdered activated carbon in 2007 to 125,000t in 2010. Growth in demand for activated carbon could accelerate to close to 400,000t in 2015 if US federal legislation, requiring installation of 600-700 activated carbon injection systems, is introduced.
Total world demand for activated carbon therefore has the potential to rise by nearly 10%py to 1.36Mt in 2015, with mercury emission control accounting for 30% of projected total consumption.
Report highlights
The tight market balance for activated carbon in 2007/08 and forecast growth rates of up to 10%py in world demand have encouraged plans for significant new production capacity. Projects underway or under consideration could raise capacity by over 260,000tpy, equivalent to around 25% of installed capacity in 2007. Over 85% of capacity is planned in the USA and China and much of the new US capacity is aimed at the mercury control market. Companies planning new or expanded coal based capacity include Norit, Calgon Carbon and ADA-ES in North America and SNCIG in China.
As coconut shell-based material becomes more competitive, expansions in activated carbon capacity are underway in Indonesia, India and the Philippines, some involving Chinese interests. Haycarb, the largest producer of coconut shell-based activated carbon worldwide, plans to expand group capacity to 30,000tpy by 2010.
Activated carbon prices are forecast to increase further through 2008/09, in line with higher freight, energy, packaging and raw material costs. In view of the metallurgical coal shortage in China, it is also possible that a new export tax could be levied on coal and coal-based products.
Longer-term trends will depend on the timing of new capacity coming on stream, and expansion in the North American mercury control market. By mid-2010, the number of contracts for activated carbon injection systems awarded by power companies across the USA is forecast to rise to 155. These systems will all require a continuous supply of powdered activated carbon.
The Economics of Activated Carbon, 8th edition published 01/10/2008
289 pages, 144 tables and 36 figures.
ISBN 978 0 86214 533 0
Complete report price:
GBP 2400
EUR 4000
USD 5000
plus postage/packing.