Latest Reports

Magnesium Metal
China's domination of the world's magnesium industry continues to grow in both supply and demand. The closure of Norsk Magnesium's plant in Canada in 2006, followed several closures of plants in the West since 1998, leaving only six significant primary magnesium producers outside China, two of which produce for their own use. As a result, Chinese production accounted for 77% of global output of about 860kt in 2007.

Virtually all new magnesium projects outside China investigated or implemented in the last few years, have either been abandoned or put on maintenance because they are not considered economically attractive in the face of Chinese competition. One possible alternative source of supply is the Kouilou Magnesium project in the Republic of Congo. MagMetals plans to produce 72ktpy of primary magnesium near Pointe Noire, as a co-product of potash. More than 200ktpy of new capacity in China came on stream in 2007, or will do so in 2008 and 2009.

The market for magnesium in China, by far the largest in the world, was about 250kt in 2007 or some 30% of global consumption. Magnesium alloy die-cast components, particularly in the automobile industry, have become the largest market for the metal, surpassing its use as a minor alloying addition in aluminium (mainly for use in beverage cans) in the mid 2000s. Demand for magnesium die-castings in China doubled in 2006, and continues to show spectacular growth as private car ownership is increasing at rates in excess of 50%py.

Although prices for magnesium more than doubled in 2007, they are still within historic ranges, and are not yet attracting investors into new magnesium projects outside China.

Feldspar
Consolidation of the industry over the past several years has increased concentration in the hands of a few large companies. Six companies produce over 1Mtpy compared to an industry average of less than 100,000tpy. The six largest producers are Gruppo Minerali (3.0Mtpy capacity mainly in Italy), Imerys (1.5Mtpy capacity mainly in France), Esan Eczacibasi Industrial Raw Minerals (1.2Mtpy), Cine Akmaden (1.4Mtpy), Kaltun (1.4Mtpy) and Unimin/Sibelco (1Mtpy capacity worldwide). Together they account for about 10Mtpy of capacity or almost 50% of world production.

Economic deposits of feldspar are known in at least seventy countries with production currently undertaken in over fifty countries. Roskill estimates total production of feldspars and associated aplite, phonolite and China stone in 2006 at 20Mt, plus 1.4Mt of nepheline syenite used in competitive applications with feldspar. About 1Mtpy of additional nepheline syenite for use in making alumina and for aggregates is also produced.

Once available only from Canada. Norway and Russia, nepheline syenite projects in a number of countries have been developed. Brazil, China and Turkey have brought nepheline syenite projects into production for feldspathic uses and Iran is doing a feasibility study for its use in alumina production. Nepheline syenite has also been used for some time in South Africa and the USA for road aggregates and roofing granules.

Manganese
Most manganese, around 90% of global output, is used in the production of iron and steel, an application in which it is essential and where it has no real substitutes. Trends in consumption of manganese thus reflect those in the global steel industry and will continue to do so.

Global steel production has been in a growth phase since the turn of the century and output rose by an average of about 6%py between 2000 and 2006. Steel demand has been forecast to increase by nearly 7%py in 2007/08 and by 4-5%py to 2015. On the basis of those forecasts, demand for manganese could reach 18-19Mtpy contained Mn by 2015.

The regional pattern of growth in demand for steel is uneven, with China recording very high rates of increase. Strong growth is also seen in India and Russia, while the USA, Japan and western Europe have stable demand.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

Iron Ore
Over the last decade iron ore production has increased by 5.3%pa, but the main explosion in output has occurred since 2001 with an AAGR of 9.7%. Iron ore production exceeded 1,400Mt in 2006 with much of this total being consumed by the burgeoning steel industries in China, India, Russia and Ukraine. These economies are in a rapid industrialisation period where consumption of steel is driven by the need to build new infrastructure. In mature industrial economies the demand for steel grows at a much lower rate and is even in decline in some countries.

While most iron ore is consumed directly in the production of steel in integrated steel works, the last decade has seen a significant increase in the production of merchant pig iron and DRI. Steel makers are increasingly turning to these resources in the face of limited scrap availability. This occurs particularly in countries undergoing rapid industrialisation, such as India, the largest producer of DRI, where output reached 14.7Mt in 2006.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

Rare Earths and Yttrium
China, the dominant global supplier of rare earths, has put strict controls on its mining, production and export in order to maximise its own use of its resources. As a result, the past 3 years have brought fundamental change to the global industry, taking it from oversupply to demand shortages.

During the 1990s and early 2000s, significant over-production and low prices led to most non-Chinese rare earth producers shutting down their operations. As a result, from 2004-2007 China has supplied 90-95% of global demand. Now, with reduced exports from China and continued growth in demand elsewhere, the supply-demand mismatch is causing great concern to other countries and they are anxious to support new sources of rare earths. With high prospects for growth in rare earth's end-use sectors, and forecast demand growth of 8-11%py, there is a pressing need for new non-Chinese capacity in the next 3 to 4 years. This has focused attention on the re-opening of the Molycorp operation in Mountain Pass, the probable increased production of loparite from the Kola Peninsula, Lynas Corporation's plans to process Mount Weld ore in Australia and other potential sources such as the projects at Nolans, Hoidas Lake and Thor Lake.

On the basis that China will adhere to the announced production limits, there is a real prospect that within 5-10 years the country will only be meeting its domestic needs. To meet the estimated global demand of 180-190,000t REO in 2010, around 40,000t of new capacity will be needed to meet the unfulfilled demand from outside China.

Rhenium
Spot prices for rhenium doubled in 2006 and are now at a historic peak - the result of limited supplies and strong growth in demand from the aerospace sector. Over the last decade, the rise in output has not matched the strong growth in demand from 35,000kg to an estimated 65,000kg, which has come from the development of new superalloys containing rhenium for use in aircraft engines and ground-based gas turbines.

The supply-demand balance is likely to tighten further, at least in the short term. World demand in 2006 was put at 65,000kg, of which 51,000kg (79%) was met by primary production. The balance came largely from recycled material and stocks from Kazakhstan. Despite expected increases in primary capacity, they are not enough to meet forecast demand. However, secondary production has risen after the 2007 re-opening of WC Heraeus plant in Germany, and the supply-demand gap will also be narrowed by the development of technology to recover rhenium from superalloy scrap. Spot prices are expected to continue rising, possibly to US$10,000/kg by 2009, before stabilising at or near this level. In the short term, remaining stocks in Kazakhstan could play a key role in prices.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

Silicon and Ferrosilicon
In 2007, the markets for silicon and ferrosilicon were enjoying an unprecedented rate of growth, due mainly to increased demand for silicones and solar cells in the case of silicon, and to rapid expansion in global steel making in the case of ferrosilicon. Although supplied to very different markets, the prices of silicon and ferrosilicon follow very similar trends because of the similarity in production processes, and the importance of the supply and cost of power in their production. With demand for silicon in silicones expected to grow at some 10%py in coming years, as well as robust demand for aluminium-silicon alloys, overall demand should expand at about 8%py up to 2011. Demand for ferrosilicon as an alloying agent in carbon, stainless and alloy steels is at an all time high and continuing to rise, with growth rates of over 6% in world steel output. Silicon prices appeared set to remain high into 2008 despite a fall off in demand from the US automobile sector for cast aluminium silicon alloys. Chemical and electronic demand remained strong, and power availability and prices continued to limit output, particularly in Europe and North America. Antidumping duties on Chinese silicon in the USA and Europe will remain in place, further underpinning prices.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.