My basketStrategic Planning
The following accounts give examples of recent STRATEGIC PLANNING studies completed by Roskill Consulting Group. To protect confidentiality, client names & identifying data have been omitted.
Analysis of the market outlook for niobium and tantalum oxides
Assignment
The client was seeking to commercialise a tantalum-niobium deposit in North America. At the time, the global niobium market was almost completely dominated by just three companies and the tantalum industry was in disarray. Both markets were characterised by a lack of transparency and publicly available data was often incomplete, or inaccurate. Essential to the client’s evaluation of the project were projections of supply, demand and, above all, achievable selling prices.
Approach
The methodology used desk research to build an overview of the issues to be considered. This formed a base case. Assumptions and reported facts in that base case were tested in confidential and often repeated discussions with Roskill’s contacts in mining, processing, trading and manufacturing. The discussions were kept confidential, even from the client, to facilitate openness on the part of the individuals interviewed.
Result
The market research formed part of a larger scoping study undertaken by the client during 2009. In early 2010, the client announced that the decision had been taken to progress to the feasibility study stage, with start-up envisaged for late 2013.
Analysis of the market outlook for tungsten
Assignment
The client, a major Japanese trading house, was seeking an up-to-date analysis of the global tungsten industry as part of an ongoing review of its commitments in various minor metal markets. Essential to the client’s evaluation of its position in tungsten were projections of supply, demand and, above all, prices to 2020.
Approach
The methodology used desk research to build an overview of the issues to be considered. Historical supply, demand and prices were analysed and various factors likely to affect future movements in the tungsten market were evaluated. Roskill then provided base, high and low case scenarios with reference to future tungsten pricing. Supporting arguments and data were provided to reinforce the forecasts of supply/demand balance and prices in the report.
Result
The market research formed part of the client’s review of its position in tungsten and further updates to the research have been provided. In addition, similar research reports have been provided to the client for molybdenum, silicon and rare earths.
Forecast supply, demand and prices of a minor metal
Assignment
A client with a base metal asset in Africa was conducting an internal appraisal into the potential for extraction of a valuable minor metal by-product. The client required a long-term price forecast for the metal to establish the viability of the project.
Approach
A summary of current producers’ output, expansion plans mooted by these companies and new projects likely to come to fruition in the period under review was assembled, with particular emphasis on the timescales for development and ramp-up of new supply sources. A review of consumption and an analysis of market drivers likely to affect demand going forward, from a macroeconomic level down to particular industry trends such as substitution, was undertaken. The resulting supply-demand model was used to forecast prices for the period under review.
Results
The forecast included a detailed short-term view on prices with a longer-term outlook based on an assessment of marginal costs of production. The client continues to develop the project and, as of early 2010, the project is under construction.
Overview of the potential markets for magnesium carbonate filler and precipitated silica
Assignment
The client was developing a process to convert olivine and CO2 to precipitated silica and magnesium carbonate. A small pilot plant had been set up in northen Euope and the client required a broad overview of the white filler and precipitated silica markets with particular reference to Europe.
Approach
In order to keep the research budget within acceptable levels for the client, the research was mainly desk-based, backed-up with some primary research with leading consumers of filler minerals. Roskill was able to provide an overview of the global markets for magnesium carbonate filler and precipitated silica and a more detailed analysis of the European situation. This included a review of major factors affecting supply, R&D competence of main producers and the corporate structure of the industry in Europe, as well as specifications, grades, quantities and prices by main application.
Result
The two in-depth reports on magnesium carbonate and precipitated silica were provided to the client on time. They were used in the ongoing development of the company’s pilot plant project.
Forecast of supply and demand for selected rare earths
Assignment
The client, a potential supplier, required an independent report into the projected supply, demand and prices for lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium and europium oxide, and lanthanum, neodymium and praseodymium metal.
Approach
Using Roskill’s long established data on rare earth production and consumption, analysts projected future demand for the selected oxides and metals based on forecast GDP growth, modified by sectoral growth forecasts, the perceived impact of changing technologies and evolving Chinese policy frameworks. An assessment of future supply was made which included a critical review of all new rare earth miming projects. Price forecasts were based on historical trends and the forecast supply demand balance, taking into account the almost monopoly position of China as a supplier.
Result
The client used the resulting report in their ongoing internal evaluation of the most effective way to bring their rare earth operation into production.
